Introduction
The current global economic outlook is facing some unknown uncertainties, among which are the economic issues in the United States. The unemployment rate in the United States has been relatively lower than in previous years, but in the past two months, it has been continuously rising, pushing the unemployment rate to 4.6%, becoming a focus in the market.
In fact, it is not just the United States that is facing such problems, but a common issue worldwide. The main reason for this situation is the inappropriate policies of the United States, which have exacerbated the domestic economic problems in the United States. Recently, the Federal Reserve once again announced that it would raise the interest rate from 5.25% to 5.5%, once again stirring up market waves.
So who is driving the Federal Reserve to do this?
The harm caused to the United States and the world by the rise in the U.S. unemployment rate.
It has to be said that the current economic development situation in the United States is indeed severe, and this situation is also caused by a combination of many current issues in the United States. If it were just the economic problems of the United States, it would not be so worrisome, but the current series of economic problems in the United States are not only economic issues but also caused by inappropriate policies in the United States.
Advertisement
These inappropriate policies mainly include the trade protectionist measures of U.S. President Trump. After the implementation of trade protection policies, they have caused huge disturbances to the global supply chain, and then the impact will gradually spread. To a large extent, they have affected U.S. business production and exports, leading to problems in the virtuous cycle of the United States.
It is completely invisible in the short term, but as time goes on, the scale of this problem becomes larger and larger, affecting U.S. industrial exports and making the already not very good economic development situation even more severe.
If one only looks at the rise in the unemployment rate, it will only make observers feel some regret and pity, but the real pain is felt by those who have lost their jobs. The rise in the unemployment rate represents the waste of a large amount of social resources by the country and enterprises, and the unemployed population will also make consumption weaker.
The impact is not only on the United States but also on the whole world. Moreover, the United States is not only practicing trade protection but also moving towards polarization in politics. Coupled with unstable economic policies, fiscal policies, and tariff policies, their impact will not only make the U.S. economy more unstable in instability but also increase the uncertainty of the global economy.In addition, the United States continues to send out signals of a new round of interest rate hikes, which have always been a major trump card for the U.S. in global financial markets. This is because the U.S. dollar is the most liquid currency in the world, and the Federal Reserve, as the central bank issuing the dollar, adjusts its monetary policy not only affecting the dollar significantly but also impacting the global currency market.
Therefore, whether it is the U.S. dollar or other countries' currencies, they all need to observe and predict the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. As the signals of consecutive interest rate hikes are released, market concerns will naturally gradually intensify. The internal capital market in the United States will naturally be in a state of depression, and the U.S. real economy will also be greatly impacted.
If the U.S. interest rate hike policy is indeed like this, then under the influence of the interest rate hike expectations, the markets of various countries will also be affected by panic emotions. The global stock and foreign exchange markets will also decline significantly, and may even cause a global financial crisis.
The impact of U.S. interest rate hikes on the global economy.
As the most economically developed country in the world, the United States' economic decisions have always been one of the factors affecting the world, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes are a decision that has a significant impact on the global economy. However, it is worth noting that although the process of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes is a process of slowing down economic overheating, it will also have a certain impact on the global economy.
Because once the United States raises interest rates, it will further worsen the U.S. export industry. In other words, the United States, according to the current interest rate hike policy, will on the one hand reduce the competitiveness of the U.S. export industry in the global market, and on the other hand, increase the cost of imported products in the United States. This will lead to the borrowing costs of industries such as manufacturing and services in the United States.
Interest rate hikes will bring new challenges to the financing of enterprises and individuals developing in the U.S. market because the U.S. interest rate hike policy will increase the downward pressure on the U.S. economy. However, the U.S. real industry is constantly seeking financing liquidity.
Once the United States raises interest rates, it actually reduces the liquidity of the global economy, thereby creating a problem of insufficient liquidity worldwide. Affected by this problem, the financing functions of enterprises and financial institutions worldwide will be weakened to a certain extent.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike policy also makes regulatory agencies and financial institutions worldwide struggle to survive in a difficult financing environment. Faced with the challenge of U.S. interest rate hikes, the global financial economic system will face a severe test, making global economic relations more chaotic.
Who will pay for the United States?The question of who bears the adverse effects triggered by the U.S. interest rate hike policy is, in fact, a matter of concern even before the Federal Reserve raised interest rates. The prices of U.S. export goods have always been higher than those of other countries, given that the U.S. currency exchange rate is among the highest globally, and the quality of U.S. products is also leading internationally.
Under the dual conditions of high product quality and price, U.S. goods possess strong competitiveness in the global market. However, once the U.S. raises interest rates, to sell more goods internationally, it must accelerate the flow of goods, a process for which the U.S. needs to foot the bill.
This is because, in order to maintain stable exports, the U.S. needs to sell goods more quickly, meaning within a shorter timeframe. However, the transportation of goods between countries is influenced by logistics speed. When logistics are slow, it can affect the sale of goods.
Furthermore, the obsolescence of goods also impacts their sale to a certain extent. For instance, when U.S. goods have a high degree of obsolescence, they become more difficult to sell. This necessitates lowering prices during the sale, which in turn leads to the U.S. passing on the cost of interest rate hikes.
Once the U.S. raises interest rates, to maintain stable exports, it will pass on the cost of interest rate hikes, effectively making the U.S. pay the bill. The policy of interest rate hikes is a challenge for both the U.S. and the global economy, especially in today's era of globalization.
Should the U.S. interest rate hikes encounter problems, they could cause severe shocks to the global financial market. Therefore, during this special period, the U.S. should adjust its policies to reduce economic uncertainty and promote stable development of the global economy.
Although the Federal Reserve has once again signaled interest rate hikes, causing fluctuations in the global financial market and impacting economies worldwide, this is also a result of the current unstable U.S. economy.
The U.S. is set to face a new round of shocks and needs to take targeted measures in response. At the same time, countries worldwide also need to closely monitor the U.S.'s actions to address the risks that may arise and jointly tackle global financial risks.
In the context of globalization, the economies of all countries are interconnected. Only by strengthening cooperation can risks be avoided, and by working together, the sustained and stable development of each country's economy can be promoted.