The current issue with the market is that the pace is too fast, with time and space being highly compressed: within three to five days, not only are the losses of three to five months recovered, but also the highs of three to five years are reached. "Once a 'mass movement' is set in motion, no one can control it." Stock investors are so frantic that, from the perspective of the decision-making layer, there is only one way to cool things down. Many people still hope that when the market index soars close to 3700 points, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) will continue to add fuel to the fire, but how is that possible? Take a look at when the last 3700 points were. At such a high position, without the exchange of chips, who would and who would dare to be responsible for this situation?
Therefore, when the market is frantic, the decision-making layer steps in to cool things down, giving everyone an opportunity to exchange chips. This will not only not kill the bull market but will also be beneficial for the transition from a mad bull to a slow bull, a healthy bull. Unfortunately, some retail investors, especially new ones who have just entered the game, really treat the stock market as an ATM, which can only rise and not fall. Obviously, this is impossible, even in a casino, it is not possible to only make a profit without losing. Investing in the stock market, risk management is the first priority. Of course, policies also need to consider the weight, and they should not release radical and wrong signals. After all, the money of the people is not easy to come by.
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This bull market came like a tornado, with an unprecedented fast pace, and it is very difficult to operate. It not only compresses time and space but also structure. Originally, a complete bull market is often ignited by policies, emotions, funds, valuations, leverage, and leverage-further ignites valuations, leverage-valuation cycle ignites big bubbles, big bubbles ignite everyone's financing and stock speculation, everyone's financing and stock speculation ignites the fear of the policy layer, and then the policy layer takes a tough stance to investigate financing, strictly regulate, leverage breaks and bursts, bursts ignite panic, panic ignites selling, selling ignites collective escape, and finally, there is a mess. A bull market ends, hundreds of millions of stock investors are trapped, and a long bear market comes. This is such a process. This process in China can be as slow as a year or as fast as a few months.
However, this round of mad bull has taken a few days to complete the time of a few months, overdrawing the space of several years (the opening of 3674 points after the festival is a new high in four years). This means that the time structure of the bull market is superimposed, without a vertical development, and it has not started to make the policy layer worried, and they have to pour a basin of cold water, leading to the stock market being almost closed the day before yesterday, and almost closed the next day. The market has begun to be filled with anxiety and panic again, and the bull market is at risk of being aborted at any time.
This seems to be another farce of "letting go leads to chaos, chaos leads to management, and management leads to death." There is such a problem in creating a bull market in an economic situation lacking fundamentals. But it is also a helpless move. Count the cards in your hand, after the two carriages of real estate and local debt are out of order, if you want to boost expectations, it may be the stock market card. Moreover, this card also has to be played, because three years of bear market have trapped hundreds of millions of stock investors, and the balance sheet of the private sector has been riddled with holes, urgently needing a valuation repair.
On the other hand, compared with real estate, the stock market also undertakes the function of pricing Chinese assets, and can give confidence to domestic and foreign investors by revaluing the fair value of Chinese assets. First, repair the valuation through the bull market, and then slowly boost the economy to fill the profit gap through the expectation effect and wealth effect, to achieve a soft landing of the capital market, and then achieve a soft landing of the economy.
This approach, that is, boosting the real economy through the capital market, has been used by the Federal Reserve with great skill after the subprime crisis and the epidemic crisis. Of course, the United States has the world's currency, the US dollar, and the world's most developed capital market, which can achieve this, and the facts have proved to be successful. By releasing the US dollar through quantitative easing, the US dollar boosts asset prices, the rise in asset prices brings wealth effects and balance sheet improvement, and then boosts consumption. Thus, a soft landing can be smoothly achieved in the case of high inflation and violent interest rate hikes. China, as the second-largest economy, can also learn from this. Even if there are some structural and deep-seated contradictions in the stock market, it can be used as a temporary measure to treat the symptoms first, and then exchange for the time and space to treat the root causes. Otherwise, if the current trend of tightening continues, it is likely that neither the symptoms nor the root causes can be treated. If this is the case, the past strategic determination has become a strategic loss.
Through this round of mad bull, we have also seen a gratifying point, that is, the hearts of the Chinese people have not died, the passion of the group is still there, and the passion for getting rich and making money is still there. However, how to transform this group passion created by the mad bull and the ups and downs of the market into a steady bull, slow bull, and healthy bull that is conducive to the creation of entrepreneurial spirit is a very important issue facing the decision-making layer. This issue is a challenge for them, and the previous bull markets in China have not successfully achieved a soft landing because of the deep-seated problems involved. But at that time, China still had real estate and local infrastructure as important macroeconomic management tools, and the capital market was not fatal if it was not used well.
However, today, with real estate almost collapsing and local debt resolution still in the stage of tough struggle, the stock market card has become extremely important. The approach of using a bull market to repair the national balance sheet and wealth storage pool may be "a way to Huashan." Although it is dangerous, it is still a direction. In this process, how to tame the mad bull and switch a market full of ups and downs and gambling nature to a modern capital market that can continue to finance innovative enterprises and new quality production forces, and create property income for the people's wealth, thereby boosting consumption, is a test not only of the decision-making layer's modern financial governance level but also of the professional quality of investors. In the past, the regulatory authorities have carried out a series of structural reforms, solving many stubborn diseases of the capital market. Next, they should focus on maintaining the interests of small and medium investors. What is urgently needed now is how to prevent this bull market from being aborted prematurely, and transform the animal spirit and group passion ignited by this mad bull into long-term confidence and hope for China's economy and stock market.