Introduction
Recently, the United States released the latest unemployment rate data, with the unemployment rate at 4.2% and 142,000 new jobs added. However, this data only slightly undershot expectations, and previous performance data was not that great either, yet there was no significant decline.
But this time, the interest rate cut has become a foregone conclusion. On Monday, stock prices across the United States fell sharply. So, what will happen next in the U.S.?
Is it really as some people say, "The U.S. is trying to stabilize the stock market to prevent large companies from going bankrupt, and then eventually restore the stock market to normal"?
Or should the stock market remain sluggish, after all, this would mean that American manufacturing enterprises lack funds, leading to fewer and fewer jobs in the United States, and consequently, the unemployment rate would continue to rise, creating an even more unimaginable social impact.
Wall Street titans' stock prices are falling.
The latest U.S. unemployment rate is 4.2%, with 142,000 new jobs added. Compared to the previous employment data, the number of new jobs has decreased significantly; the previous employment data showed that the U.S. added 843,000 new jobs.
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This was stated by Stanley Fischer, former Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, after reviewing the previous employment data and making his interest rate cut prediction.
Is it true that the U.S. employment data is really worse than expected?
We have a new consideration; the number of new jobs added this time is about five times lower than expected.So far, Hurricane "Sui La" has swept across various parts of the United States, destroying a large number of houses and crops, resulting in an economic loss of $1.2 trillion, which in turn led to 1.8 million unemployed people.
The economic pressure is also great. If the U.S. economy continues to fall into a weak cycle and sits on the path of swinging growth, this is undoubtedly a double blow for the United States.
However, since Biden took office, the current economic situation in the United States is not optimistic. From the performance of the U.S. job market in October this year, the employment confidence of the American people has also changed a lot.
The United States has released the public's expectations for the future economy, and the current index is 41.8, a sharp drop of 6.4 from the previous 48.2, indicating that the pessimistic sentiment of the American people about the future economy has increased.
The confidence index of small and medium-sized enterprises also set a record for the largest decline in more than two years, and the future sales expectations also declined by 9 points, which greatly affected the revenue of listed companies.
If it leads to the bankruptcy of listed companies again, the number of unemployed people will definitely increase accordingly.
So what will happen to the U.S. stock market next? The reason is nothing more than the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. If there is no interest rate cut, it can ensure that the economic situation of U.S. listed companies will improve.
A former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, Stanley Fisher (Goerge Standley Fischer), said in an interview that the United States needs to accelerate the speed of interest rate cuts, stabilize market sentiment, and thereby enhance the confidence of industrial enterprises.
At the same time, he believes that the financial policy of the United States has already made appropriate adjustments, but the current situation of various countries in the world should be unclear, and there is still room for financial policy, but it needs to be measured well.
Is the United States trying to observe the flow of funds to China?Based on the recent economic and employment indicators in the United States, there has been a decline, which has prompted us to consider how the U.S. will respond next. It is clear that the U.S. interest rate cut is now a foregone conclusion. Looking at the Federal Reserve's previous stance and the unemployment rate data in the U.S., the number of employed individuals has decreased compared to the past. If this trend of declining employment continues, the U.S. may consider another interest rate cut.
This could make the U.S. the first country in history to implement a "double cut" in interest rates. The U.S. stock market may face a new round of shocks, and the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) has risen by 6.8% year-on-year, marking the largest increase in nearly four decades.
Economic development can elevate a country's economic standards, but it also comes with risks. If the economic space in the U.S. continues to shrink, one might ask where the U.S. will seek development from then on.
There are reports suggesting that "the U.S. might impose tariff costs, increase sanctions on our country, and use international trade to threaten our production enterprises, aiming to divert funds worldwide, not just to China."
However, let's consider another perspective: if the U.S. financial market really falls into difficulty, how would the U.S. respond? This would inevitably lead to the depletion of U.S. funds. Therefore, it is highly likely that the U.S. would open its financial gates to allow more funds to flow into the country, from which U.S. production enterprises could benefit.
This could also lead to a significant increase in the value of the U.S. dollar. Thus, the U.S. might allow funds to flow into the world, effectively making the globe pay for the U.S. economy.
In this sense, the U.S. might use geopolitical means to block the flow of funds to other countries, causing allies to continuously restart currency devaluation, which would be a unilateral benefit for the U.S.
The result would be an expansion of the U.S. trade surplus. However, achieving a "U.S. favoritism" is not easy.How does the United States exert extracurricular power to channel funds into China?
Currently, the employment rate in the United States is on the rise, and the U.S. has acquired many large assets, which can be said to be the lifelines of enterprises from various countries.
From the perspective of the capital market, in recent years, the United States not only has the largest asset scale in the world but also has a very rapid growth rate of assets, which is something many countries desire.
China's domestic capital market has attracted a large amount of foreign capital, and foreign capital is also entering China in droves. The development process of China's economy has also solidified its position as the second-largest in the world.
So, how does the United States intend to exert economic blockade power to channel funds into China?
Firstly, there is an upgrade in the U.S. power structure. The U.S. faces new challenges, such as its network system, which serves as the foundation of American information support.
Although these infrastructures are in the domain of the United States, they play a significant role as latecomers to the field, facilitating the smooth conduct of business.
This has also led to global enterprises investing in these areas, with the United States naturally benefiting from it. The situation the U.S. faces is within the integrated China-U.S. economic system, which serves as a constant source of strength for the U.S.
The U.S. has strengthened its control over the global capital market, and countries worldwide have become highly indebted, no longer choosing to develop new markets but instead focusing on investing in the United States.
What the U.S. excels at is capital absorption. Once most countries around the world fall into an economic crisis, the U.S. tempts them with high interest rates and a large amount of capital, thereby significantly increasing its capital market.The United States' global dominance is thereby consolidated, with many capital havens turning to the U.S. The world's financial system is led by the American financial markets, which are manipulated by the U.S.
The U.S. is far from being so simple; it has other means at its disposal, such as: the U.S. COVID-19 vaccine. Many countries are purchasing American vaccines, which is a path for the appreciation of American capital.
While the U.S. is reducing its vaccine supply, the outside world may also perceive the U.S. as using this as leverage, demanding that other countries open their markets to the U.S. and allow more capital to flow into the U.S.
The U.S. aims to unify the global capital markets under its control. This is a way for the U.S. to build its global influence, and there is also the rhetoric of "internationalization."
It is not only about unifying the capital markets but also about wanting to unify the world's major currencies. By promoting the internationalization of power, the U.S. wants to gain the greatest benefits.
Conclusion
The U.S. financial market influences the world, and if the U.S. wants the advancement of global capital, it will certainly cause the number of the world's major currencies to gradually decrease.
In this way, the U.S. can use its own currency to control the global financial system. If other countries do not cooperate, the U.S. will use the "economic crisis" as an excuse.
Every move the U.S. makes affects the global economy, which is, of course, also a geopolitical means of the U.S. This series of measures are all aimed at strengthening American power, but it will also arouse more opposition.
When the U.S. economy encounters difficulties, China's financial market needs to absorb more capital, which also allows our Chinese financial market to accommodate more capital, and countries should also be prepared to respond.The U.S. economy is facing difficulties, so it is only natural that capital would flow towards China. However, China must also be well-prepared to welcome the inflow of capital to avoid asset bubbles and financial risks.
It is inevitable that China will experience an influx of funds due to the difficulties in the U.S. economy. At the same time, it is essential to be proactive in preventing potential issues. The global economic landscape may undergo changes, and all countries should be prepared to respond accordingly.