On Wednesday, October 9th, Eastern Time, several regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents continued to express their support for the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates. Although the Fed initiated an easing cycle with a 50 basis point rate cut in September, these officials did not indicate a preference for continuing such a significant rate cut in the near future.
Among them, Mary Daly, the President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, who has voting rights on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) this year, stated that she fully supports the decision to cut rates by 50 basis points in September. She clarified that the magnitude of the September rate cut does not represent the pace and magnitude of future rate cuts, and that the Fed may cut rates once or twice for the remainder of the year.
Daly noted that the U.S. job market has cooled slightly and has entered a more sustainable rhythm. "I do not want to see the labor market slow down further," she said. Daly expressed considerable confidence in expecting inflation to fall to the Fed's target of 2%. She mentioned that business contacts are cautiously optimistic about the economic outlook.
Susan Collins, the President of the Boston Federal Reserve, who will have voting rights at the FOMC meeting in 2025, stated that with the decline in inflation and the economy becoming more vulnerable to shocks, the Fed's decision to cut rates by 50 basis points at the September meeting was a "prudent" move under current economic risks. She suggested that rates may need further adjustment afterward.
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"I believe that, under these circumstances, initially cutting rates by 50 basis points was a prudent move, as monetary policy is still in a restrictive range. Further adjustments may be necessary," Collins largely reiterated her comments made on Tuesday, including her view that policymakers should adopt a "prudent, data-dependent approach" to rate cuts. She once again emphasized that there is no predetermined path for monetary policy.
Lorie Logan, the President of the Dallas Federal Reserve, who will have voting rights at the FOMC meeting in 2026, expressed her support for a slower pace of rate cuts as the Fed's policy normalizes from the highest levels in over two decades.
Logan stated that she remains focused on the inflation and employment aspects of the Fed's dual mandate and believes that there are still risks in the U.S. economy, which justify a more cautious policy approach.
Tomorrow night, the U.S. September CPI data will be released, which will be an important piece of data affecting expectations for rate cuts and the performance of U.S. stocks. Currently, the media widely expects that the overall CPI for September will rise by 0.1% month-on-month, with the core CPI expected to rise by 0.2% month-on-month.
Although Logan does not have voting rights on monetary policy this year, she expressed her support for the decision to lower borrowing costs at the central bank's September meeting. In September, the Federal Open Market Committee conducted its first rate cut since the outbreak of the pandemic, with a cut of 50 basis points that exceeded expectations."Following last month's reduction of the federal funds rate by half a percentage point, it may now be appropriate to adopt a more gradual approach to restoring a normal policy stance, in order to best balance the risks to our dual mandate objectives."
Currently, there is disagreement over the magnitude of future rate cuts. More than half of the Federal Reserve officials believe that an additional 50 basis points of rate cuts should be implemented this year, which implies that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in each of the remaining two meetings. Seven officials support a single rate cut of 25 basis points, while two officials anticipate no further rate cuts will be necessary.
Logan agreed with the alleviation of inflation and stated that deflation is a widespread phenomenon. Despite a cooling labor market, it remains healthy. She added that monetary policy is still restrictive and should continue to dampen demand for housing and other services.
"Inflation and the labor market are just one step away from our targets. Easing policy will help avoid overcooling the labor market, thereby bringing the inflation rate back to target levels in a sustainable and timely manner."
However, she noted that there are various uncertainties in the outlook, and inflation still poses some upside risks, thus necessitating a more cautious pace in rate cuts.
"I still believe that the inflation rate may stay above our 2% target, which is a significant risk."